No doubt, we came to the conclusion about 2 years ago that for the forseeable future (probably partially correlated to when/if unemployment drops below 5.5%) its all about an 'orphan'/ install base play.
But that's why we needed to add new lines of business, just like Sage, to sell into our client base. However, most of the new Sage offerings don't offer significant profit opportunities for the var. More like 'spiff' money, and only after various paid certifications and learning curves in most cases. Most of their new offerings offer little in the way of substantial services opportunities for us. At best, as you say, it might help a client stay loyal to Sage, although outside of 'downgrading' to QBE, I don't see alot of moves from one ERP to another in the same price/market range these days. Not even alot of saas. How many of you have a customer who dumped mas90 for Netsuite?
Trying not to 'over plug' (yet :) ) but we also setup another division to focus on producing on-line video marking (www.video-marketing-online.net) and eventually expanded it into holistic web marketing including SEO, email marketing, blogging, btob social media etc.
We probably don't want to slug it out with all the other companies pitching that stuff, but among our offices we have hundreds of clients who already trust us and who need these services.
So I think for all of us its about either building, or representing additional goods and services we truly feel our clients can benefit from. Hopefully ones that don't have a complex learning curve and offer healthy recurring revenues for all.