The spaghetti models are accurate. It's like Schroedinger's weather forecast. All of those targets are right until it picks a route.
Tampa usually doesn't get direct hits due to the geography. Neither does the area I live in.
It will likely get windy and rainy. It just becomes a factor of how windy and rainy. Where I am, the biggest danger is likely tornadoes. Darcy has to look out for storm surge.
And as Darcy said, you just never know.