There is certainly segmentation among SMB customers for this. My initial example was one that did not want a Windows server in house. Period. In addition to Wayne's examples, we have remote workers with SO's and customer history. Yes, CRM is part of that, but I'm skeptical of just how much.
Has anybody seen forecasts of how cloud pricing (pupm) will change in the next 5 yrs? I don't mean salesforce, as I don't think those apps will lower pricing, but the IaaS vendors? I think these could drop in half.
Zenith Infotech (yes, I know it has other business challenges) offers an interesting product that lets a VAR take a fixed-price NAS and BDR device and plug it into a white labelled compute host. For about $11k + compute server you get a 6-TB system that will host quite a few VM's on it. My point is that with sort of pricing/capability out there now, the pupm pricing for cloud platforms will come down.
With a network device for the office, you then have capability to support BYOD simply, with little security threat through virtualized desktops. This will appeal to many, but not all. Those will be ok with some premium above straight financial equivalence and the added ""hardness"" of a data center. So I think the shift to ""cloud"" whether private (on prem) or ""public"" will continue as virtualization of business apps, whether via browser or some form of RDP, progresses.
And Mark is quite right about the implementation. Virtualization of the app removes only some of the server installation complexity, not the large bulk of the implementation effort. But I don't think customers will really understand that until they experience it.